Starbucks, the world’s biggest coffee retailer, suggested that it won’t need to raise its prices because of Brazil’s lower output. But that will also depend on whether the big roasters have enough beans hoarded to get them through however long prices remain elevated. Rubinstein said higher prices on the international market can often stimulate production - farmers will have more money to invest in their crop - and if there’s more coffee on the market, prices will retreat.

The damaged crop in Brazil is still more than a year from harvest, plenty of time for many factors to reverse course. It seems likely, although higher coffee prices on the international future market is not a guarantee that prices at your favorite roaster will go up. IS IT A CERTAINTY THAT RETAIL PRICES WILL RISE? However, in large coffee shops, he added, the cost of the bean only represents about 5% of your cup of hot coffee, so roasters “may not need to carry over the increases right away.” Mera said people who buy coffee beans in the grocery store will likely see a more noticeable increase in prices because about half the cost of that bag on the shelf comes solely from the bean itself.

“That is just going to contribute to more demand that is going to further disrupt operations and make it more difficult for operators who are already experiencing supply issues,” Wood said. Grace Wood, an industry analyst for market research firm IBISWorld, said if consumers don’t see coffee prices rise by the end of this year, they almost certainly will in 2022, as per capita demand is expected to increase. Lower supplies almost always mean higher prices. That’s about 12% of the output from the world’s largest producer of Arabica, the bean used for most coffee sold around the world. While it’s difficult to determine the size of the crop loss in Brazil, Mera said estimates vary between 2 million and 6 million fewer bags of coffee.

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